Minnesota Governor Tim Walz announced a draconian school reopening plan on July 30, 2020. The plan is based on cases per district. This is based on factors of fear and not science.
Safe Learning Plan Goals
- Prioritize the safety of students and staff
- Prioritize in-person learning, especially for younger learners
- Consider infectiousness and transmission risk among different ages
- Support planning, while permitting flexibility for districts
- Take into account disease prevalence at a local level
The school districts will have to adjust on the run depending on the county number of COVID 19 case count. The options of instruction will be fluid throughout the whole year. These include in-person, hybrid learning, and distance learning. There is no business including education which can run with these possible issues.
Let us concentrate on the Safe Learning Goal #1, safety for students and staff. Being blunt, this is not about the kids. This is about Governor Walz’s concern with the teacher’s union. Let me support that accusation. Data is from the Minnesota Department of Health which the school districts are supposed to rely on for guidance.
Use Data If Following Science
As of reporting on about July 30th, Minnesota had 55,188 cases of COVID 19 by criteria and 1606 deaths. For any teachers in the schools who may be concerned about the infection of and severe results: If you are a teacher in the state of Minnesota and are 60 years or older, the possibility of dying if you are positive with COVID 19 is about 16%. If you are a glass half full person that is 84% of senior citizens survive getting this infection. Further risks of death: 50-59 years old is 1.1%, 40-49 years old is 0.2%, 30-39% is 0.1%, and 20-29 years old is 0.03%. This is consistent with surrounding states like North Dakota and Wisconsin.
For the senior teachers over the age of 60, one may say the risk of death is still high and as a physician, I agree, with a certain perspective. 2017-2018 in Minnesota was a bad influenza year. There were 6,446 hospitalizations for influenza that year with no school “safety” plans, no social distancing, no concern for teachers nor any concern for our children. No lockdown, business closings, or restrictions. No masks and definitely no handwashing Gestapo though we all know our teachers and schools did do a wonderful job in reminding students of that importance. We still have less than that in hospitalizations for COVID 19 this year at 5,208. Teachers will tell me that they understand the influenza numbers but this is a worse infection. I completely agree. If you are in a susceptible category, the result can be horrible. And that concern would be for deaths.
Out of the 16% of deaths over the age of 60 in Minnesota, one must remember that 76.3 % of all deaths were persons in long term care or assisted living facilities. That means if you are of good health in any age category, your risk of death is small.
But what about the children and the risk of depression and poor learning because of these constant changes in learning dynamics? Of the 6,363 persons between the ages of 6-19, there have been 0 deaths. Just to make that crystal clear, that is 0% deaths in Minnesota. There have been more deaths of children at 0-17 years of age from influenza in Minnesota in the last several years with the worst being 2014-2015 and the 2017-2018 period. No concerns from politicians, no school “safety” protocols, and no restrictions on sports and nothing from the education unions. No business closures and no masks. I ask if one really has a concern then what about the kids?
A Great Real Plan
So give us your plan Dr. Albrecht. Okay.
TEACHERS
Though the chances of a bad health outcome for teachers over the age of 60 is minute, and I believe you are working if still healthy, you should be wearing an N95 respirator mask at work, not a surgical or cloth mask. Only the respirator has shown for health care staff to stop any infection and that is with sick COVID 19 patients. I can give you my support for this but the bibliography is long. I will detail this in a later post. Even a recent Lancet analysis article gives mask-wearing evidence a LOW CERTAINTY of benefit and higher supporting certainty with N95 masks. School district administrators should not allow their teachers over the age of 60 to wear anything other than N95 masks. If they wear anything other than that, they need to sign an ” against School district advice” form. Any surgical or cloth masks are still putting this age group teacher at risk of death, though low.
Another option is the state of Minnesota should support those teachers and allow them to opt-out of teaching for the year, without pay, but have their jobs there in the future. They could stay in employment and put together an online or video presentation teaching plan. That would mean they are at home and away from the health concerns of the world, though there is a 96.6% chance of survival with COVID 19 over the age of 20. Unfortunately, no state has started looking into the health dynamics of the deaths. That is why again I repeat, 76.3% of deaths were from persons in long term care and assisted living facilities.
If you are my patient and a teacher asking me of my opinion, I will give you the numbers and percentages and the autonomy for the best decision for you. A healthy person more than 20 years old in the state of Minnesota has a 96.6% chance of surviving COVID 19.
KIDS
School-age children can wear masks. Though again the cloth and surgical masks have been documented not to stop spread with influenza well. I give you current nursing home data for an example for COVID 19 and again the recent Lancet article. Kids in school wearing masks are to stop the sneezing and cough gubbers. But if one is concerned about their health risk with this virus, you should not be out in public without an N95 mask and limited outings at that.
Social distance for desks is not needed. Social distancing is not proven in this age group for influenza data. The teachers are usually standing 3 feet away with lectures and teachers should have N95 masks when assisting students with school work if any health concerns. All during May through July kids were with their peers. Even with public demonstrations and riots in Minnesota, the deaths are still below 2% for anyone less than 60 years old, reminding everyone, those deaths were with persons with health morbidities. Even the Lancet review article only gives a distancing of 1 meter which is 3.28 feet, less than 6 feet currently. Even that distancing is only moderate certainty of benefit. But if you truly follow the science with distancing and concerns for zero deaths or transmissions to teachers, one child in each classroom would be the safest in-person classroom teaching.
Eyewear is a low certainty of benefit.
OPEN ALL SPORTS!
Club soccer, baseball, and football camps have been going on in the state of Minnesota and North Dakota with still no deaths or “spikes” of cases. Outdoor sports are the lowest health risk concerns in this school-age group. Persons over the age of 60 should not go to the games or be involved in facilitating the games unless wearing N95 masks. The numbers and science support this using influenza data. College sports should be open. The death risk of 20-29 years olds is 0.03% in Minnesota, 0.06% in North Dakota and 1% in Wisconsin, which is having sports with 88% of deaths over the age of 60.
Be Honest
The number of cases is going to increase along with continued testing. We are not flattening any curve, and no hospital or medical region has ever been stressed to the point of any deaths because of no ventilators. This includes Minnesota, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. I will delve into the more recent spikes in other states and the real data in a later post. The COVID 19 virus is with us. The nursing homes have been shut down since March and still, most deaths are there.
Let us be honest, the politics of this is awful and the science is even worse. Why are we making the children suffer the most? The adults and seniors if honest about their concerns should be taking the strictest precautions and allowing others to live without public restrictions. They are at the most risk, not the kids. Governor Tim Walz is projecting bad politics and following poor science. I ask Minnesota school teachers and administrators not to do the same.
