Seasonality is really the effects of a population in seasonal terms. In the Southern United States in the summer, everyone is more likely to be inside with air conditioning than outside, therefore more chances of spread of a respiratory infection. At the same time, the population of the Northern states is spending time outside. The winter comes about and the opposite happens. See the graph from the CDC below ( MY LABELS):
In August of 2020, Nature published an article trying to put aside the possibility of seasonality as a source of spread and policy decisions. From the article;
Summary for policymakers
Weather probably influences COVID-19 transmission, but not at a scale sufficient to outweigh the effects of lockdowns or reopenings in populations.
In The Scientist, an article tries to brush aside the seasonality of spread by directing one’s attention away from how a population reacts to weather seasons and thus those results in the spread of disease, and point toward direct temperatures controlling viral life span.
“…the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 is certainly modulated by climate factors like temperature, humidity,” but that these are not currently the dominant factors driving it.
WebMD published an article speaking about more research out of Nature. The article, COVID-19 Doesn’t Seem Seasonal, Study Says, continues to miss represent seasonality. There is a difference between direct environmental effects within a small area, and a population during times of the year.
From the article ( MY UNDERLINE):
October 15, 2020 — Respiratory viruses tend to be seasonal, including the two most common flu viruses, but the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 seems to be a year-round nuisance, according to a new study published in the journal Nature.
Environmental factors such as humidity and temperature don’t appear to affect the coronavirus as much as other viruses, which flourish more in the dry, cold months of winter.
Finally, after months, the media is talking more about the seasonality of the Covid spread. Yahoo News from November 11, 2021, reported on the rise of Covid cases and the relation of seasonality.
The current uptick — arriving exactly one year after last winter’s massive COVID wave — appears to be the start of a seasonal spike in places with cooler weather that were spared the worst of the initial U.S. Delta surge, which hit undervaccinated Southern states hardest this summer.
NATURAL IMMUNITY
The Yahoo article points to a CDC study of 9 of 50 states showing natural immunity not as beneficial as vaccine immunity. This study was immediately criticized.
The article and list of papers mentioned above can be found at the Brownstone Institute.
Martin Kulldorff, Senior Scientific Director of Brownstone Institute and a co-founder, is an epidemiologist and biostatistician specializing in infectious disease outbreaks and vaccine safety and was a professor at the Harvard Medical School for ten years. He authored an article comparing the Israeli study supporting Natural Immunity and the recent CDC study.
I have worked on vaccine epidemiology since I joined the Harvard faculty almost two decades ago as a biostatistician. I have never before seen such a large discrepancy between studies that are supposed to answer the same question.
CDC HAS NO SCIENCE
The CDC now admits to having NO proof naturally Covid recovered patients spread infection. Find Full Letter here:https://bit.ly/3wHRtGT
The CDC says 146 million people survived the C0V1D virus and now have natural immunity. That is a huge number of people who do not need the vaccination. Reported by Becker News;
The CDC estimates that 124 million of the 146.6 million infections resulted in “symptomatic illnesses,” although it is unclear why only one in four infections sought out medical treatment. The CDC further estimated that there were 7.5 million hospitalizations, although ‘hospitalizations’ may include routine treatment that happened to turn up a positive Covid-19 test, greatly inflating the figures.
Why Is This Important
The CDC pushes a narrative in which everyone needs to be vaccinated. The CDC publishes a poor study trying to direct a narrative against natural immunity and has no data itself to support mandated vaccinations of the naturally immune.
From the Martin Kulldorff article;
Based on the solid evidence from the Israeli study, the Covid recovered have stronger and longer-lasting immunity against Covid disease than the vaccinated. Hence, there is no reason to prevent them from activities that are permitted to the vaccinated. In fact, it is discriminatory.
Many of the Covid recovered were exposed to the virus as essential workers during the height of the pandemic before vaccines were available. They kept the rest of society afloat, processing food, delivering goods, unloading ships, picking up garbage, policing the streets, maintaining the electricity network, putting out fires, and caring for the old and sick, to name a few.
They are now being fired and excluded despite having stronger immunity than the vaccinated work-from-home administrators that are firing them.
SEASONALITY AND IMMUNITY DEBATE
I want my patients to understand that Covid will come and go and cases will rise and fall like the Flu seasons. Covid vulnerable are those over 50 years of age with comorbidities including heart and lung disease, kidney failure obesity, and diabetes. Immunologically incompetent people of any age can be vulnerable. How do we protect these patients while allowing the remainder to make medical choices and then go on with life?
Originally denying seasonality raised the benefit of lockdowns and restrictions which have devastated lives around the world. Now using seasonality narrative to cover the failure of vaccinations must be discussed. The new seasonality narrative and the ongoing denial of natural immunity, originally a denial of Herd Immunity, will continue to allow politicians to have cover to make poor policy. These policies will continue to have broad-ranging health consequences for my patients, beyond Covid infection.